An alphabetical compendium of curious facts‚ dire warnings and inspirational initiatives
The implications of climate change can be overwhelming. They touch every field‚ from science to economics to culture. Our New Climate Almanac 2007 breaks down the complexity with a concise miscellany of the latest ideas‚ facts and predictions.
Explanatory Note: The Globe and Mail ran an eight–page special feature on “the new climate” – a collection of short pieces on climate change‚ of which I contributed the following six:
CLIMATE REFUGEES
As the climate changes‚ so will the world and‚ for many people‚ not for the better. It won’t be long before “environmental refugees” outnumber those displaced by war and genocide — scientists predict that by 2050 as many as 200 million people will be displaced. Long–term‚ scientists are concerned about the potential for coastal flooding of densely populated regions‚ such as New York and Bangladesh. Meanwhile‚ the sea is creeping up on low–lying islands‚ especially in the South Pacific.
“Tuvalu will suffer in the future‚ but very slowly‚” says Brian Cannon‚ a former resident of the island now living in Vancouver. The Tuvaluan government is trying to plan for an evacuation‚ but as yet they have not secured a home for the 11‚000 islanders.
But more immediate is the threat of droughts‚ which could turn huge tracts of the Earth into desert. “Desertification is one of the greatest environmental threats we face today‚” says Zafar Adeel‚ director of the International Network on Water‚ Environment and Health at the United Nations University in Hamilton. “Currently‚ 100 to 200 million people are affected by desertification‚ and about 2.1 billion people are at risk.”
He says sub–Saharan Africa and central Asia‚ such as “the five ‘Stans‚’.” will suffer some of the worst effects from climate change‚ and they lack the resources and infrastructure to cope. Water shortages are guaranteed to spark violent conflicts around the world‚ similar to the drought–related violence in Darfur‚ Dr. Adeel says.
“Addressing desertification is one of the most effective ways to deal with climate change — you get the biggest bang for your buck. Unfortunately‚” Dr. Adeel adds‚ “there is a lack of understanding on the part of policy–makers.” At the last meeting of its international contributors‚ the UN’s land–degradation convention had its budget cut 15 per cent.
EMPTY RICE BOWLS
Because of global warming‚ the food supply for more than half of the world’s population could be in jeopardy. Shallow waters such as rice paddies heat up quickly‚ and that can stunt the growth of the plant. According to Kenneth Cassman‚ director of the Nebraska Center for Energy Sciences Research‚ an increase of just one degree in nighttime summer temperatures could lead to a 10–per–cent drop in rice yield. Scientists around the world are scrambling to breed new rice varieties better able to cope with the effects of climate change‚ including heat waves‚ droughts and floods. Meanwhile‚ anybody want a Wheat Krispie square?
JESUS LOVES CARBON REDUCTION
The latest push for action on climate change in the U.S. is not coming from any of the usual suspects. Religious groups across the country have taken on the issue as their own‚ particularly some camps of evangelical Christians. “The Republican Party is 40 per cent evangelical‚ so we have the capacity to move policy–makers who have until now resisted any action‚” says Rev. Richard Cizik‚ a vice–president of the National Association of Evangelicals.
In perhaps the first coalition of its kind‚ the NAE and other evangelical organizations have teamed with scientists to collectively lobby Washington on climate change. One key selling point will ring a bell for other evangelicals: “Climate change is a sanctity–of–life issue‚” Mr. Cizik says. “We have taken seriously the consequences of taking unborn human life — we need to be just as serious about taking advantage of this Earth.”
The crisis‚ he says‚ is not simply an environmental and humanitarian concern — it is also a spiritual one. “If we‚ the evangelical Christians‚ are willing to stand by and witness the destruction of creation‚ then something about our own capacity to see the truth has become deadened. We dare not tempt the Lord.”
PAINT–ON SOLAR
For decades‚ policy–makers have dismissed solar energy‚ with its rigid‚ fragile and costly silicon panels‚ as impractical. But a new generation of scientists is working toward solar cells that are light‚ flexible and cheap. At the front of the pack is University of Toronto engineer Ted Sargent‚ who has invented “liquid” solar cells that could be painted onto a portable electronic device or the roof of a building.
Traditional solar cells catch only visible light‚ but Dr. Sargent’s material captures the half of the sun’s rays that are infrared. “Even if we could convert only 1 per cent of the sun’s infrared power reaching the Earth into useful energy‚” he says‚ “we’d still be able to power the Earth’s present–day energy needs 50 times over.”
REEFER MADNESS
Between limestone mining‚ dynamite fishing and clumsy tourists‚ we have already lost about a quarter of all coral reefs worldwide. And about half of the remaining reefs are threatened by human activity. But the biggest threat isn’t drills‚ explosives or cruise ships — it’s carbon dioxide.
For one thing‚ corals simply can’t take the rising heat that comes from CO2 emissions. Water that is even a bit too warm will cause coral to “bleach‚” changing it from a vibrant rainbow to a ghostly sea of white. In 1998‚ one of the hottest years on record‚ 16 per cent of all reefs bleached. This year is predicted to be even worse. And there’s the “acid seas” problem — the extra carbon dioxide being absorbed by the ocean makes it difficult for corals to build their limestone skeletons.
Little surprise‚ then‚ that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change thinks Australia’s Great Barrier Reef could be “functionally extinct” by 2030. Dire news‚ since 4‚000 species of fish live in a typical reef‚ along with other organisms.
But there is still hope. Brian Huse‚ head of the Coral Reef Alliance‚ says that establishing about 3‚500 conservation areas to keep reefs free from pollution reef conservation areas could save them from extinction. “A healthy reef‚” Mr. Huse says‚ “is more resilient to the effects of increased temperature.”
ZERO HOUR FOR THE AMAZON
For decades‚ people have wrung their hands over deforestation in the Amazon. Now‚ scientists fear that climate change alone may turn the massive rain forest into a baking desert. If droughts and forest fires intensify and the rain forest shrinks‚ it creates less rain‚ leading to more droughts and fires‚ and so on‚ in a vicious cycle. Just as in the boreal forests‚ the Amazon’s burning trees will release stored carbon into the air‚ further speeding global warming. If the entire Amazon went up in smoke — which may happen within decades — it would release 100 billion tonnes of carbon‚ says Daniel Nepstad‚ who studies rain–forest droughts and fires. (Humans currently release about six billion tonnes a year by burning fossil fuels.)
“This‚” Dr. Nepstad says‚ “really is frightening.”